Tadej Pogačar did it - after winning his debut Giro d’Italia, he has won the Tour de France and completed the famed Giro-Tour double. In doing so, he joins an exclusive list of riders to have achieved that feat and now has the prospect of doing something unthinkable - the Grand Tour Triple. No-one has ever won all three in the same year - historically, it was impossible as the Giro and La Vuelta were in the same part of the calendar. La Vuelta is now later in the year so there’s a chance to do it - but should he?
On the face of it, it would be iconic if he was to race La Vuelta and ride for the win - he’s clearly capable. The chance to race for the triple does not come around often in a rider’s career; the last to get such an opportunity was Marco Pantani in 1998, it’s almost once-a-generation because the difficulty of winning any Grand Tour is so high, let alone the first two of the season. One piece of bad luck, one day where your legs have deserted you and that’s it, race over, chance squandered. Sometimes you have to take the chance whilst you have it and be in the moment rather than chase the goal with a concerted attempt.
Without doing anyone a disservice, the level of competition that Pogačar would face in Spain is surely a field he is capable of beating. The riders who most think he is vulnerable against were all in France and dispatched fairly easily - albeit on limited preparation. There wouldn’t be anyone in that race that would scare him, not that I think anyone does. Pogačar seems quite resolute - and with his talents, I imagine it’s quite easy to be.
Winning the third Grand Tour of a year would show just how great he is - an achievement that cannot be beaten without moving the goalposts significantly. If he pulled it off, he would be the first and that would belong to him forever. In the future, perhaps someone comes along and repeats the feat, and does it with more time-gap to second place in each race, but no-one else could ever claim to be the first. The accolade would prove just how great he is.
But he doesn’t need to.
Pogačar is already one of the greats, a Grand Tour triple would not change that. He does not have anything to prove. He’s won the Giro and the Tour in the same year, and he’s a rider who can win over cobbles in Flanders, mountains in the Dolomites and time trials in the French Riviera. He’s a man who’s only limitation is his own imagination. Adding the Vuelta on to this year would not make a difference to how he is viewed as a bike racer.
Secondarily, although it’s foolish to believe that future years will be similar to this one - the Slovenian is surely going to get future chances to repeat the feat should he so choose to. I struggle to believe that this is the only opportunity to complete the triple in his career. He’s more than capable of getting himself into a position where he can do this again - and with a concerted attempt it could go even better.
One thing to consider is the team. Although it’s fun to consider what happens if Tadej wants to do the Vuelta (and maybe he doesn’t even want to), the team harmony should also be considered. UAE Team Emirates has an incredibly deep squad and they also deserve their own opportunities, asking them to sacrifice their race on behalf of Tadej, when they’ve been preparing their whole season around the final Grand Tour would risk disillusionment. Some may argue that it’s worth it for a rider like Pogačar, that the benefit outweighs the risk, but fate can be cruel and there’s no guarantee that Tadej will stay at the peak of the sport. Cycling is as much about politicking as it is about the sport side, and bigger picture thinking is often best ahead of a short-term gain.
I don’t think he will race at the Vuelta, any decision to do so would risk upsetting a team-mate who might be called upon for help in races down the line. The only way he could get into the squad in a diplomatic way would be via someone else having to drop out due to injury or illness, but even then it would have to be a leader pulling out and that spot is more likely to be filled by advancing someone else’s development path rather than Tadej stepping in.
La Vuelta could be used by Pogačar as an experiment, to see how he would fare across a third Grand Tour in a year, but Tadej races to win, not as an experiment - so the team would have to race as his support and deny other riders their own opportunities, which I cannot see happening at relatively short notice.
Furthermore, this year also has a World Championship Road Race parcours that favours Pogačar, which he would surely target - and the Olympics for which he has been selected. Racing to win means those can’t be approached with anything less than full preparation.
Tadej is one of the greats of cycling and Grand Tour Triple or not, he will always be viewed that way. To alter Sid Waddell’s quote slightly: “When Alexander of Macedonia was 33, he cried salt tears because there were no more worlds to conquer... Urška Žigart's fiancé is only 25.”
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